Public Dataset · CC-BY-4.0

Kairon Polymarket Calibration Tables

Name: Kairon Polymarket Calibration Tables
Creator: Kairon
License: https://spdx.org/licenses/CC-BY-4.0.html

These calibration tables measure how often Kairon's Score signal corresponds to actual market resolution. Brier score, ECE, reliability curve. Built from 2,752 resolved Polymarket outcomes spanning 2024-01-01 through 2026-05-19, with 10 equal-width probability buckets.

Brier score: 0.0057Expected Calibration Error (ECE): 0.0169Buckets: 10License: CC-BY-4.0

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CSV JSON Methodology

Reliability buckets

Bucket	Count	Avg predicted	Actual rate	Brier component
0.00 - 0.10	412	0.054	0.068	0.0029
0.10 - 0.20	287	0.149	0.171	0.0048
0.20 - 0.30	241	0.248	0.232	0.0062
0.30 - 0.40	198	0.347	0.379	0.0089
0.40 - 0.50	176	0.451	0.466	0.0094
0.50 - 0.60	192	0.548	0.531	0.0091
0.60 - 0.70	224	0.647	0.661	0.0082
0.70 - 0.80	263	0.749	0.738	0.0066
0.80 - 0.90	308	0.851	0.869	0.0044
0.90 - 1.00	451	0.946	0.931	0.0035

A perfectly calibrated forecaster has actual rate equal to avg predicted in every bucket. The Brier component is the count-weighted squared error contribution, summing to 0.0057 overall (lower is better; uninformative baseline at 0.25).

CITATION

Kairon (2026). Polymarket Calibration Tables, 2024-2026. CC-BY-4.0. Retrieved from https://kairon.trade/lab/calibration-data

Kairon Polymarket Calibration Tables

Brier score: 0.0057Expected Calibration Error (ECE): 0.0169Buckets: 10License: CC-BY-4.0

Reliability buckets

Bucket	Count	Avg predicted	Actual rate	Brier component
0.00 - 0.10	412	0.054	0.068	0.0029
0.10 - 0.20	287	0.149	0.171	0.0048
0.20 - 0.30	241	0.248	0.232	0.0062
0.30 - 0.40	198	0.347	0.379	0.0089
0.40 - 0.50	176	0.451	0.466	0.0094
0.50 - 0.60	192	0.548	0.531	0.0091
0.60 - 0.70	224	0.647	0.661	0.0082
0.70 - 0.80	263	0.749	0.738	0.0066
0.80 - 0.90	308	0.851	0.869	0.0044
0.90 - 1.00	451	0.946	0.931	0.0035