Kings vs. Pelicans

Polymarket markets resolve against the criteria printed in the market's rules section. Resolution is finalized by Polymarket's UMA-backed oracle; the YES side pays out $1 per share when the criteria are met, NO pays out $1 per share otherwise. Kairon mirrors the live midpoint and resolution timestamp but does not adjudicate outcomes.

Disputes route through UMA's optimistic oracle: any participant can challenge a proposed resolution by posting a bond, which triggers a token-holder vote. During the challenge window the market stays in a frozen state. Kairon flags disputed resolutions on this page once the on-chain status changes.

Polymarket charges no commission on trades at the time of writing; users pay only on-chain gas (Polygon) and the natural bid-ask spread. Kairon takes no fee on the redirect — the "Trade on Polymarket" action above sends you straight to the counterparty venue.

This market is scheduled to resolve on Oct 30, 2026. Polymarket may settle earlier if the underlying outcome is confirmed before the listed close, or extend the window when a resolution source is delayed.

Polymarket resolves the market against the resolution source named in its rules — typically an official statement, regulatory filing, sports body, or wire report. Disputed resolutions go through the UMA optimistic oracle before final payout.

The current YES price of 33% is the midpoint between the best bid and best ask on Polymarket. Treat it as the market's implied probability that the YES outcome occurs, net of trading frictions and liquidity.

Odds reflect aggregated trader orders on Polymarket, not a Kairon model. Each contract pays $1 if its outcome resolves true, so the live price is the market-implied probability. Kairon adds whale-flow, anomaly, and calibration context separately.