Whale flowThis market has not crossed Kairon's whale-event threshold in the past 24 hours (typically ≥$10k single-position deltas). Quiet flow at 20% YES means the current midpoint is being held by retail-scale orders rather than concentrated capital — useful context for a position-sizing decision. Kairon's whale leaderboard surfaces the same signal across every active market.
Anomaly scoreThe Kairon Anomaly Engine rates this market at 7.7 on its 0-100 velocity scale, derived from 24h turnover ($87k on a $1.4M base) and the recent -10.0pp7-day drift. Markets scoring above 3.0 historically resolve within 30 days at a rate roughly 1.4x the active-pool average. The score updates every 15 minutes through Kairon's ISR pipeline and is the same signal that powers the platform's anomaly alerts.
Calibration noteAcross Kairon's open calibration dataset, prediction markets that settled inside the 15-25% probability band resolved YES at rates statistically consistent with the midpoint — Brier scores in this band sit near 0.240 on the 2024-2026 sample. That makes a 20% YES reading on “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?” a calibrated estimate rather than a directional bet, unless your own model contradicts it. The full per-band table and downloadable CSV/JSON live on the Kairon calibration dataset page. The composite Kairon Score for this market currently reads 65/100.
Polymarket markets resolve against the criteria printed in the market's rules section. Resolution is finalized by Polymarket's UMA-backed oracle; the YES side pays out $1 per share when the criteria are met, NO pays out $1 per share otherwise. Kairon mirrors the live midpoint and resolution timestamp but does not adjudicate outcomes.
Disputes route through UMA's optimistic oracle: any participant can challenge a proposed resolution by posting a bond, which triggers a token-holder vote. During the challenge window the market stays in a frozen state. Kairon flags disputed resolutions on this page once the on-chain status changes.
Polymarket charges no commission on trades at the time of writing; users pay only on-chain gas (Polygon) and the natural bid-ask spread. Kairon takes no fee on the redirect — the "Trade on Polymarket" action above sends you straight to the counterparty venue.
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. Polymarket may settle earlier if the underlying outcome is confirmed before the listed close, or extend the window when a resolution source is delayed.
Polymarket resolves the market against the resolution source named in its rules — typically an official statement, regulatory filing, sports body, or wire report. Disputed resolutions go through the UMA optimistic oracle before final payout.
The current YES price of 20% is the midpoint between the best bid and best ask on Polymarket. Treat it as the market's implied probability that the YES outcome occurs, net of trading frictions and liquidity.
Odds reflect aggregated trader orders on Polymarket, not a Kairon model. Each contract pays $1 if its outcome resolves true, so the live price is the market-implied probability. Kairon adds whale-flow, anomaly, and calibration context separately.
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Strong momentum aligned with whale accumulation suggests upside.
